Gray Smoke

The recent 'stopping of fire' between India and Pakistan, brokered by the United States, marks a significant shift in the region's geopolitical landscape. While President Trump has claimed credit for this diplomatic breakthrough, the underlying strategic calculations reveal a more complex reality. Pakistan's Dual Doctrines Pakistan has long recognized its conventional military disadvantage against India's superior size and resources. This recognition led to the development of two complementary doctrines: asymmetrical warfare (the strategy of "bleeding India by a thousand cuts" through proxy forces and terrorist activities) and nuclear deterrence. In the global geopolitical jungle, India has a very large forest compared to the small wooded area of Pakistan, with tigers, sharks, and eagles as conventional forces. Pakistan developed two additional security strategies: releasing annoying mosquitoes over the fence (asymmetrical warfare) and installing a comi...

  While media outlets have been extensively criticizing India's apparent lack of response to the Trump administration's new tariffs, I find the Modi government's measured approach refreshing. Rather than joining other world leaders in making immediate and potentially reactive public statements, India has chosen a path of careful deliberation. This restraint raises an interesting question: Are other global leaders genuinely interested in productive negotiations with the incoming Trump administration, or are their public pronouncements merely designed to bolster domestic and international popularity? A Strategic Economic Maneuver The Modi government has instead implemented a sophisticated economic response by increasing the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per liter. What makes this move particularly astute is that this additional tax burden will be absorbed by the oil companies rather than passed on to consumers. This timing is strategic for several reasons. Oil...

On May 29th, our esteemed opposition leader attacked the govt and particularly PM Modi for the failed demonetization. [ India Today ] They were based on widely circulated report that the fake notes of 2000 and 500 had increase 50% and 100% respectively. Some of the headlines were eye catching ·        Cash you hold could be fake. ·        Banking Central | Counterfeit notes are back in full swing and that’s worrying ·        This denomination saw the highest increase in counterfeit notes in FY22 This could be bad news for the Indian economy and as I am interested in numbers, I decided to dig deeper.  One thing which struck me as I looked at other new reports was none of them reported about the magnitude of the problem. For example during demonetization in Nov 8 th 2016, the estimated amount of notes in circulation was Rs 15,44,000 Crs. [ PTI news ]. The top 5 pages of google...

I was in Goa couple of weeks back and was amazed that the beaches were pretty clean compared to what I remember few years back. Next morning I realized that the secret of the cleanliness is that in the morning (8:00 - 9:00 AM), you would find actually sweepers picking up the thrash the tourist had thrown the night before. However if you went to the more remote parts of beach, you find plastic packets and broken bottles. My son however would insist of collecting few of them every time, in his pocket to throw in garbage. I did not necessary like this as I was not sure what went into these packets and if it was hygienic to pick them up in his pocket. However he is at an age were I cannot command him to do anything and honestly I was a bit proud of him. On the morning of 12th October,  I found an interesting new news item popping up on my phone which talked about the PM Modi was " Plogging " on Chennai beach. I had never heard of this word and went searching for it. More im...