The art of making forecasts

A part of management is do forecasts. Forecasts are most of time based on totally wrong assumptions or worse past historical data. Even after making a forecast, how many times are they really tracked against performance.

I guess the only reason to make a forecast is to justify a decision. So always make a rosy, over-the-top forecast because no one likes a depressing one to start with.

If the rosy forecast does not meet the performance you can always make excuses of "external unknown environmental variables".

Dilbert.com

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